科研之友
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摘要
The quantity and quality of water and land resources are of great significance to the sustainable development of agriculture.The 22 indicators were used to establish the evaluation system of the carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources in Kazakhstan. The analytic hierarchy process, entropy weight method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model were combined to analyze the dynamic change and regional difference of the carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources in Kazakhstan from 2001 to 2017. The obstacle method was used to quantitatively identify the influencing factors. The results showed that:① From 2001 to 2017, the overall carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources in Kazakhstan showed a slow upward trend, and the evaluation indexes of the water and land resources subsystem and the economic subsystem were all increased slowly, but those of the ecology subsystem and social subsystem were significantly decreased; ② The carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources was significantly different from different regions.The areas with high carrying capacity were mainly distributed in the northern, central and eastern regions, and those with low one were in the southern and western regions. The carrying capacity in North Kazakhstan, Costanay and Akmola was increased year by year, but that in Atyrau and Baplodar was low and decreased; ③ The carrying capacity was mainly affected by the reclamation rate (C2), agricultural output value per unit area of cultivated land (C16) and agricultural irrigation rate (C4) during 2001-2009, but it was mainly affected by the agricultural water and land resources matching coefficient (C1), population density (C10) and land sewage load per unit area (C20) during 2010-2017.The factors related to the eco-environment have gradually became as the barriers to the carrying capacity.
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单位荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室; 中国科学院大学
