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摘要
To promote the application of reliability analysis (probabilistic geometric design) in highway safety design and crash prediction, this paper develops crash prediction models to establish the relationship between the multi-mode failure probability of cars and car crashes. Firstly, considering the multi-mode failure as the breakthrough point, a multi-mode failure system was established based on three possible failure modes (skidding, rollover, and insufficient sight distance) of single-car on combination sections of vertical and horizontal curves. Then, 10 241 single-car crashes on the combination sections of vertical and horizontal curves of highway in Washington were taken as the research objects, and the multi-mode failure probability of the system was solved by Monte Carlo and wide bound method. Finally, three crash prediction models including negative binomial model, random effects negative binomial model, and random parameters negative binomial model were developed by taking multi-mode failure probability and road factors as explanatory variables. Moreover, the relationship between multi-mode failure probability and single-car crashes was explored. Results show that among the three models, the random parameters negative binomial model outperformed the other two models. When the multi-mode failure probability was considered, the influence of road geometric factors on the single-car crashes was weakened. Except for two exposure variables, the multi-mode failure probability had the greatest impact on single-car crashes. The number of single-car crashes was approximately linearly related to the multi-mode failure probability, and the intercept of the fitting curve was not 0. The results can be used in the reliability design of highway. ? 2023 Harbin Institute of Technology.
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