科研之友
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摘要
In addition to reducing carbon emissions，energy policies for CO2 emission peaking target can considerably enhance air quality and public health. This study used an integrated modeling framework that combines three models of the LEAP，the WRF-CMAQ，and the BenMAP-CE，to quantify the impacts of both energy policies and air pollution control measures on CO2 and air pollutant emissions，air quality，and public health in Huizhou. The results showed that CO2 emissions in Huizhou will continue to increase under the baseline scenario（BAU）without the implementation of carbon mitigation policies，while the CO2 emissions will peak at 69.06×106 t in 2030 due to energy transition，in which the power sector making the highest contribution to carbon reduction. With the combination of end-of-pipe air pollution control measures and energy policies，the source reductions of SO2，VOCs，NOx，and PM2.5 emissions were 4695，44142，38422，and 12493 tons respectively compared to the base year 2019. The annual average PM2.5 concentration in Huizhou can be reduced from 18.25 μg·m-3 in the baseline scenario to 14.95 μg·m-3 in 2035，which is less than the WHO Interim Target-3（15 μg·m-3），and the annual average O3 concentration can be significantly decreased to 133.68 μg·m-3. Accordingly，there were 448 （95% CI：143~737）and 36（95% CI：11~61）avoided premature deaths related to PM2.5 and O3，respectively，with a health benefit of 3.788（95% CI：1.237~6.156）billion Chinese Yuan（CNY）over the baseline scenario. ? 2023 Science Press.
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