Characteristics Analysis of Incubation Time of COVID-19

作者：Zhang, Yanfang^*; Zhao, Yibin; Ren, Qingqing; Liu, Bo

来源：Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2022, 2022: 6500446.

DOI：10.1155/2022/6500446

• INTERVENTIONS

Objectives. The statistical characteristics of incubation time of COVID-19 are studied comprehensively in this paper. We studied the mean value and tail characteristic of incubation time. Also, the difference in incubation time is studied in different age groups, different genders, and different contact modes. Methods. We analyzed the data by a lognormal distribution. Tail characteristics of incubation time are studied by the excess function. The difference in incubation time between different age groups, different genders, and different contact modes is studied by one-way ANOVA. Results. The results showed that the mean value of incubation time is about 12.6 days, and the standard deviation is about 6.1 days. The incubation time of 95% of patients was within 24 days. Some patients have a very long incubation time according to the excess function. The incubation time was not related to age and gender but related to the suspected contact modes. Conclusions. The mean value of incubation time is consistent with the actual situation. The above results are a reasonable explanation for the phenomenon of super-long incubation time in some patients and the development trend of epidemic situations.

• 单位
  防灾科技学院; 中国地震局; 湖南农业大学