科研之友
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摘要
Under the background of industrial transfer and transformation and upgrading, this paper takes 21 major manufacturing industries' industrial sales value and employees in 2006, 2011 and 2016 as research data, and uses dynamic agglomeration index, industrial gradient coefficient and improved Shift Share Model (SSM) to explore China's manufacturing transfer and its structural evolution. The study found that: (1) During the research period, the main body of manufacturing industry transfer is labor-intensive and part of technology-intensive manufacturing industry, and the direction of transfer is from the east to the central and western regions. However, from 2011 to 2016, chemical raw materials, medicine and other manufacturing industries in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places have shown a strong spatial agglomeration trend; (2) The marginal industrial transfer and technology grants in the food and beverage manufacturing industry and metal smelting industry in the eastern region not only optimized their industrial organization, but also promoted the scale and concentration of manufacturing in the central and western regions, while Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang and other places must guard against the loss of industry and guide the development of manufacturing industry; (3) During the study period, the structural effect index w of manufacturing industry in eastern regions such as Shanghai and Guangdong is greater than 1, and the average structural deviation component p is larger, indicating that its manufacturing industry contains a relatively large proportion of sunrise industries and its industrial structure is better. Hunan, Guizhou and other central and western regions of the manufacturing industry competition effect index U is greater than 1, and the average competitive effect is larger, indicating that its manufacturing industry is developing faster and more competitive. The research helps to clarify the new characteristics of China's manufacturing transfer and its structural evolution in the context of industrial transfer and transformation and upgrading since the financial crisis, and provide reference for China's high-quality economic and industrial development.
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