Evaluation on Forecasts of a Cold Wave in China and Its Eurasian Cold Air Activity by CFSv2 System in November 2015 [CFSv2 系统对 2015 年 11 月中国一次寒潮过程及其欧亚冷空气活动的预报评估]

作者：Wei Z.; Zhu X.; Dong W.; Liu Y.; Chen G.; Liu Y.

来源：Plateau Meteorology, 2022, 38(4): 673-684.

DOI：10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00014

• CFSv2 operational forecasts
• China
• cold wave
• forecast evaluation

The operational forecast data of the second generation climate prediction system (CFSv2) with the length of 9 months and the NCEP/ DOE reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the global daily highest and lowest surface temperature data from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in the USA are selected, the forecasts of the CFSv2 system to a cold wave process occurred in China from 21 to 27 November 2015 are evaluated. The results show that the CPC data with high resolution and the NCEP/ DOE data with coarse resolution are both very clear to show the evolution characteristics, temperature drop and temperature anomaly of this cold wave process. The temperature drops caused by the cold wave occurred mainly in the eastern part of China, and in the north of the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea at the same time. The temperature drops is also evident in the Arctic Ocean coast of northern Asia. The temperatures between Siberia and the eastern part of China are obviously colder than usual, the temperatures in Western Europe and the Iranian Plateau are lower, and the temperatures in other regions of Eurasia, especially in the north, are higher. The CFSv2 has certain abilities to forecast the whole temperature drops and temperature anomalies of this rapid freezing cold wave for 0, 5, 10 and 15 d in advance, but the prediction ability is poor 20 d in advance. On the whole, the CFSv2 can predict the spatial distribution of temperature drops better than the temperature anomalies, but the absolute errors with the observed values of temperature drops are greater than that of the temperature anomalies. The temperature drops from the CFSv2 forecasts are obviously low than the ones from the observation by the cold wave in North China, South China and nearby areas, but higher in Siberia, Mongolia and Northeast China. In addition, the temperature drops from the CFSv2 forecasts in the north of the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea is also obviously low than the ones from the observation. The temperature anomalies from the CFSv2 forecasts are obviously low than the ones from the observation by the cold wave in the whole Eurasian land area, but higher in the surrounding ocean area and the adjacent coastal area.

• 单位
  地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室; 中山大学