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摘要
Based on the numerical experiments undertaken by 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)global climate models, we first evaluate the model performance in simulating the temperature and precipitation climatology over the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau for the period 1985-2014. Results show that the CMIP6 models can reasonably reproduce the climatological spatial patterns of annual and seasonal temperatures. Most models underestimate annual and seasonal temperatures, with an average of -2. 1 ℃ for the annual mean and greater cold biases for winter and spring. The CMIP6 models perform poorly in reproducing annual and seasonal precipitation. They can reasonably reproduce the climatological spatial pattern of annual and seasonal precipitation, but obvious overestimation exists, especially for spring and summer, with a value of 397. 8 mm a-1 for the annual mean. Furthermore, based on the preferred models, annual temperature over the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan)Plateau is projected to increase by 2. 5 ℃ in the 2090s relative to 1995-2014, with a trend of 0. 28 ℃ per decade during 2015-2100 under the Shared Society-economic Pathways(SSPs)2-4. 5 scenario. Larger warming occurs in autumn and winter, and this holds for the high-altitude areas. Annual precipitation increases by 12. 8% in the 2090s, with a trend of 1. 56% per decade during 2015-2100 under SSP2-4. 5. Generally, larger increase in precipitation occurs in spring and in the northern border area of the Tibetan Plateau throughout the 21st century. Comparatively, annual and seasonal temperatures and precipitation have larger increases under the SSP5-8. 5 scenario, and the corresponding magnitudes are 5. 1 ℃ and 30. 2% in the end of the 21st century, with a trend of 0. 64 ℃ and 3. 80% per decade, respectively. Overall, the inter-model uncertainty of the projected temperature and precipitation changes increases over time.
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