科研之友
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摘要
Clarifying the impacts of climate change and human activity on plant’s net primary productivity (NPP) is crucial for regional ecosystem transformation and sustainable development. Using a simulated scenario experimental design based on the CASA model, five periods of Landsat remote sensing images, and meteorological data spanning the years 1994 to 2018, this paper determines the effects of two factors, human activities and climate change, on plant’s NPP in the capital area. The results indicate that: (1) During 1994-2018, the multi-year average of NPP in the studied area was 226.21 g C·m?2·a?1, with a fluctuating rising trend; (2) The execution of the Green Ring Project led to a large positive gain in NPP owing to an increased plantation area (0.38 Tg C·a?1, P < 0.01). In contrast, the impact of climate change on NPP is more variable, with an overall loss effect (?0.07 Tg C·a?1, P = 0.34). Under the combined influence of human activity (land use change) and climate change, the NPP of Kazakhstan’s capital area exhibited a considerable positive gain effect (0.27 Tg C·a? 1, P < 0.1); climate change has a lesser impact on plants’net primary productivity than human activities. (3) Temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation are the most influential climatic elements on NPP. During 1994-2000 and 2006- 2012, increased temperature and reduced precipitation caused NPP loss, which dropped from 218.50 g C·m?2·a?1, 201.19 g C·m?2· a?1 to 189.00 g C·m?2·a?1, 188.48 g C·m?2·a?1; With the improvement of precipitation circumstances over 2000- 2006 and 2012- 2018, the mean value of NPP in this area increased significantly, reaching 201.19 g C·m?2·a?1, 207.73 g C·m?2·a?1 correspondingly. These research findings assist in elucidating the processes of climate change and human activities on NPP and may also serve as a guide to enhance the ecological quality of the desert-steppe area, alleviate the global warming issues, and serve the carbon neutrality goal of Kazakhstan by 2060.
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