科研之友
微信
新浪微博
Facebook
分享链接
摘要
Use the emission factor method to estimate the VOCs emissions from industrial sources in 2020, and integrating relevant literature research results, environmental air quality and carbon peak and carbon neutrality related policy requirements, technology development laws and expert assessment, the scenario analysis method is used to determine the emission source emission reduction measures, emission factor emission reduction rate and energy efficiency improvement rate, and quantify the emissions and emission reduction potential of the enhanced scenario and carbon peak and carbon neutrality scenario from 2020 to 2060, and analyze the synergistic effect of CO2 and VOCs emission reduction. The results show that the emission of VOCs from industrial sources is about 13.575 million tons in 2020. The use of products containing VOCs has the largest emission, accounting for 55.7% of the total. Industrial protective coating, printing and packaging printing and oil and gas processing are the top three emission sources, with a total contribution rate of about 34.7%. Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong and Zhejiang are the top four emission provinces in China, accounting for 40.7% of the total emissions. Under the four control scenarios, the emission of high-speed GDP-enhanced scenario in 2060 is the largest, about 5.32 million tons; The low-speed GDP-carbon peak and carbon neutrality scenario is the smallest, about 4.69 million tons, which reduces 630000 tons compared with the high-speed GDP-enhanced scenario, indicating that the carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy is conducive to VOCs emission reduction; In terms of emission reduction rates, the reduction rate of the high-speed GDP-carbon peak and carbon neutrality scenario is smaller than that of the low-speed GDP-enhanced scenario in 2020—2040 and vice versa in 2040—2060, indicating that the carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy is more conducive to the medium and long-term reduction of VOCs. In terms of links, the proportion of emissions from the use of products containing VOCs changed the most, and the carbon peak and carbon neutrality scenario decreased by 5% compared with the enhanced scenario in 2060. In terms of reduction, industrial coating has the largest reduction, and the main reduction way is the source substitution of coatings with low VOCs; under the carbon peak and carbon neutrality scenario in 2060, the energy industry will reduce nearly 1.0 million tons through the improvement of energy cleanliness and energy efficiency, we should continue to promote the whole process governance of VOCs and improve the clean energy level and energy efficiency level at the same time. Under the four control scenarios, CO2 and VOCs emission reduction have synergistic effects, under the carbon peak and carbon neutrality scenario, the elasticity coefficient of emission reduction is ≈ 1, and the synergistic effect is better. ? 2022 Science Press.
- 单位
