摘要

在“双碳”目标背景下,以我国中部六省为研究对象,在甄别碳排放主要影响因素基础上,搭建STIRPAT模型对中部六省的碳排放量进行拟合,并设定不同情景参数对碳排放的达峰时间和峰值进行预测。研究结果表明,低碳模式是所有情景模式中最早达峰(2024年)且峰值最低(115 734.31万t)的最佳发展模式;若保持经济稳定增长且实现在2030年前碳达峰的目标,可采用高质量发展模式;绿色模式、节能模式、基准模式的达峰时间分别为2025年、2030年和2035年,碳排放峰值分别为116 728.11万t、120 789.11万t和129 701.43万t;粗放模式下,在2040年不能实现碳达峰。基于此,提出中部各省应结合实际情况,明确今后政策落实的侧重方向,早日实现中国整体碳达峰的目标。

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