科研之友
微信
新浪微博
Facebook
分享链接
摘要
The urgency and complexity of air pollution control and environmental governance require making policy decision scientifically and effectively. The integrated scientific assessment model system with cost-benefit assessment is an important tool to support environmental strategy and management. For example, the air pollution control cost-benefit and attainment assessment system (ABaCAS) can help policy maker assess the cost-benefit of certain control strategy, but cannot support the optimization of the control strategy for air quality attainment under different ambient air target. To address such issue, this study developed a scientific decision support platform for air pollution prevention and control in China. This platform is based on the 4 key components of ABaCAS, developed a new technology (LE-CO) that can calculate the emission reduction from air target requirement, as well as the optimization integrated assessment scheme (ABaCAS-OE), to design optimized control strategy and make quick assessment of corresponding air quality response, target attainment, control cost and health benefits from different control strategies. This study applied this newly developed platform in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding area, '2+26' cities, and used it to evaluate the attainment test, costs, and benefits of emission reduction scenario in 2035. The emissions of PM2.5, SO2, NOx, NMVOCs and NH3 in 2035 need to be reduced by 70%-87%, 49%-85%, 66%-74%, 51%-66% and 0-40% respectively to achieve the air quality standard. Besides, the air quality attainment scenario could also bring considerable benefits with the benefit/cost ratio of 3.7. Future study on the integrated scientific decision support platform for air pollution prevention and control will continually improve the technologies to support multi-objective, multi-sector, multi-pollutant, multi-regional fine control regulations. Future study on the platform is expected to achieve the integrated decision-making with the whole coverage of economic, energy, emission, concentration, cost, health, ecology and climate, to fully support the comprehensive scientific decision-making of air pollution prevention and control in China.
- 单位
