美国政治百年大变局与2020年大选（英文）

作者：谢韬

来源：Contemporary International Relations, 2020, 30(05): 66-87.

American politics is currently undergoing great changes unseen in a century, which has been predominately manifested in the following three aspects: first, the rampant COVID-19 pandemic has caused the US to suffer its worst economic recession since the Great Depression in 1929;second, social division and political polarization are besetting the US as evidenced in its wide partisan divide between the supporters of its two major parties on a range of critical issues; and third, the US is caught in a national identity crisis, while China’s rise is believed to intensify such a crisis. These three factors are bound to exert great impacts on the 2020 presidential election of the United States: the COVID-19 pandemic will have certain influence on voter turnout and the approval rating of the two parties; in the context of the aforementioned serious social divide and highly polarized political landscape, the basic constituencies of the two parties are likely to show an extraordinary degree of party loyalty, which could result in the possibility that a few voters in a handful of key states will determine the results of the election; and as China’s peaceful rise is mistaken as a serious threat to the national identity of the US, China will be one of the key topics in the coming US presidential election, hence further worsening the relations between China and the United States.

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  北京外国语大学