The optimal allocation of oasis agricultural water based on the interval two-stage stochastic programming with CVaR [基于区间两阶段抗风险随机规划的绿洲水资源优化配置]

作者：Xi K.; Yu J.; Zhang M.; Yu R.

来源：Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2021, 39(6): 224-229+265.

DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2021.06.26

• Cele oasis
• Cvar
• Stochastic programming
• Water resource allocation

Rational allocation of water resources for irrigation is a main approach to alleviate pressures of water shortage in the oasis.We selected Cele Oasis in Hotan area located in Southern margin of Tarim Basin as the study area, and utilized discrete probability functions to process the annual runoff data of Cele River during the recent 60 years.Based on planting structure of the economic fruit forests in the Cele Oasis, we modeled the irrigation manage?ment problem as an interval two-stage stochastic programming with CVaR (ITSP-CVaR) to handle risks caused by randomness and uncertainty.In addition, an innovated method based on the grey linear programming was proposed to solve the ITSP-CVaR model.The research results showed that when the intake water volume in Cele River was uncertain, the jujube should be preferentially irrigated.Moreover, although the ITSP-CVaR model served as a little more conservative water allocation strategy compared to the original ITSP, it remained the upper bounds of total rev?enue in low-flow and medium-flow years, and at the same time increased the lower bounds from 5.1 x 10 Yuan (RMB) and 2.12x10s Yuan to 5.6xl()7 Yuan and 2.17x10s Yuan, respectively.The typical case analysis showed that the application of ITSP-CVaR model not only ensured the maximization of income while meeting the water re?quirements of each fruit forest, but also resisted risks in the case of water shortage.Thus, the model can have a great significance for improving the water efficiency of oasis agriculture and maintaining the agricultural ecological.

• 单位
  荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室; 中国科学院大学