科研之友
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摘要
This paper develops an empirical assessment of low-carbon electricity transition in China, with specific emphasis on identifying its impact on the industrial sectors associated with three alternative scenarios-baseline, carbon neutrality (CN) and enhanced carbon neutrality (ECN). The case in point for this assessment is provided by Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (thereafter, the Greater Bay Area). The analytical framework for this assessment is based on a dynamic CGE model. The results suggest that attaining net-zero electricity by 2045 (CN scenario) is likely to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 8.9% and 67%, respectively, for the Greater Bay Area when compared with the baseline scenario. This impact would worsen the region's reliance on electricity imports, adversely affecting its economic growth (3.9% less than the baseline scenario). This economic impact would, however, vary significantly across industrial sectors, reflecting their difference in terms of electric energy substitution, carbon emission reduction contribution and value-added flexibility. The impact on high electricity-dependent sectors is likely to be small (losses of about 79billion yuan in sectoral value-added), when compared with those sectors that are less dependent on electricity (losses of 100billion to 320billion yuan in sectoral value-added). By implication, this suggests that policymakers should consider promoting electrification and fuel-switching in these sectors, in order to reduce the adverse impact of electricity decarbonisation on their future growth. The electricity sector in the Greater Bay Area will attain net-zero emissions by 2040 in the ECN scenario. The strong growth of local renewable generation in this scenario could help reduce the region's reliance on electricity imports (11% less than the CN scenario), contributing to energy security and socio-economic development (1.5% higher than the CN scenario). This development would particularly benefit industrial sectors that are highly dependent on electricity and promote electrification in other sectors.
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