Probability prediction of transmission line breakage and tower topple over under wind disaster considering the joint distribution of wind speed and wind direction [考虑风速风向联合分布的大风灾害下电力断线倒塔概率预测]

作者：Zhu L.; Chen T.; Zhou C.^*; Deng H.; Xia Q.

来源：Power System Protection and Control, 2019, 47(2): 115-122.

DOI：10.7667/PSPC180109

• Joint distribution of wind speed and wind direction
• Line damage and tower collapse
• Numerical weather prediction
• Probabilistic analysis
• Windstorm

In view of the deficiencies that it is difficult to obtain the data of the wind speed and direction of the actual line and the prediction error of transmission line breakage and tower topple over is higher than that of the existing wind disaster, a probability prediction model of transmission line breakage and tower topple over with the correlation of wind speed and wind direction is proposed. The model uses the product of wind speed probability density function and wind direction frequency to express the joint probability density function and calculate the effective optimal probability distribution types and parameters of each wind direction of transmission line height. The wind load model of transmission lines and the wind load model of the tower are used to calculate the maximum wind speed that the lines and the towers can bear under each direction. Through processing numerical weather forecast data and taking the altitude correction and interpolation mapping after forecasting wind speed data as input parameters, it achieves the probability prediction of transmission line breakage and tower topple over when the line meteorological data is insufficient.

• 单位
  华南理工大学