The trend of muscle and tendon injuries in China from 2005 to 2019: an age-time-cohort analysis [2005—2019 年中国肌肉和肌腱损伤发病趋势的年龄-时期-队列模型分析]

作者：Yu X.; Zhang Q.; Jiang T.; Yuan K.; Cai D.^*

来源：Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2022, 22(10): 1125-1133.

DOI：10.7507/1672-2531.202204024

• Age-time-cohort model
• Incidence trend
• Joinpoint model
• Muscle and tendon injury

Objective To analyze the prevalence of muscle and tendon injuries in Chinese from 2005 to 2019. Methods Using Joinpoint regression model and age-time-cohort model, the average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to analyze the incidence of muscle and tendon injury in Chinese from 2005 to 2019. The influence of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence of muscle and tendon injury was analyzed by sex. Results From 2005 to 2019, the incidence of muscle and tendon injury in Chinese residents increased (AAPC=2.0%, P<0.05), and the AAPC of females was higher than that of males (AAPC values were 2.1% and 1.9%, respectively, P<0.05). The results of age-time-cohort model showed that the age effect, period effect and cohort effect coefficient were statistically significant. The age effect and cohort effect coefficient fluctuated, and the period effect coefficient increased continuously. The period effect is dominant in three effects. Conclusion The incidence of muscle and tendon injuries in Chinese residents has increased rapidly. Children aged 5 to 9, people aged 20 to 29 and elderly women aged 85 to 94 are the key groups.

• 单位
  南方医科大学