An芍lise de risco aplicada ao manejo precaucion芍rio das pescarias artesanais na regiˋo do reservat車rio da UHE-Tucuru赤 (Par芍, Brasil)

作者：Camargo; Serguei Aily Franco de; Petrere Jr; Miguel

来源：Acta Amazonica, 2004.

DOI：10.1590/S0044-59672004000300013

• risk analysis
• precautionary management
• inland artisanal fisheries
• game theory
• tucurui reservoir
• tocantins river.

the fisheries in the reservoir of uhe-tucuru赤 employ about 6.000 fishermen generating approximately r$ 4.2 million/year. there are three main target-species: tucunar谷 cichla monoculus (caught with hook and line), pescada plagioscion squamosissimus (caught with gill net and/or hook and line) and mapar芍 hypophthalmus marginatus (caught with gill net). published information was reviewed and data collected during two field trips in 1999 and 2000 that included interviews with community leaders and fishermen. the aims were: to get information on the reservoir fisheries and fishermen; create scenarios of fishing effort increase; and, forecast potential conflicts due to the collapse of resources. the following variables were considered: target-species landings (data records supplied by the fishermen%26apos;s associations), fishing gear, fishing strategies, conflicts, fishing spot allocation systems, and income. these variables, covering a period of 10 years starting from 1999, were entered into a dynamic model, simulated with the vensim ple software. the results indicate that the hook and line fishery is the most profitable, and potential conflicts due to resource scarcity could occur in short time (2005). the methodology used for the simulations and risk analysis was found to be suitable for the local reality and available data set.