科研之友
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摘要
Understanding the population loss and economic decline in the three provinces of Northeast China from a perspective of urban shrinkage is of great significance to deepening the transformation theory of China's old industrial bases. The main results can be summarized as follows. Since 2000, obvious differences in urban growth and shrinkage have occurred in Northeast China. Some 42.85% of cities showed an urban shrinkage. The manufacturing and service industries in cities of urban growth (growing cities) are increasingly advanced, while the development of new pattern industries and industrial structure upgrading are slow in cities of urban shrinkage (shrinking cities) and the economic competitiveness of these shrinking cities is weakening. There is a close spatial correlation between growing and shrinking cities. On the one hand, growing cities continuously absorb the production factors such as population and capital of shrinking cities through the agglomeration effect, and on the other hand, they increase the pressure of economic transformation of shrinking cities through the spatial transfer of traditional industries. The shrinkage degree varies from high to low from north to south, and shows a trend of 'first strengthening, then weakening' from east to west. The processing cities have the highest shrinkage degree, followed by industrial and mining cities, and the tourism and port cities have a relatively low shrinkage degree. The factors influencing urban shrinkage include the development lag of public service facilities, the misalignment of industrial development and market demand, the low correlation degree of industrial structure, the aging of population structure, and the agglomeration effect of regional central places, their intensity of action enhancing in turn. According to the economic long wave theory and local circumstances, Northeast China will experience a long-term urban shrinkage in the future. It should be a strategic choice to develop this region to actively adapt to the shrinkage, and optimize and reorganize population and economic factors through smart urban shrinkage.
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